My research focus on elections and public opinion, especially related to race and immigration. In my first major project I focused on affinity voting, drawing on social-psychological theories of identity. More recently, I have been conducting a large project on discrimination and racism, especially explicitly attacks by politicians on minority groups, and changes over time. Finally, I have a project using data on political donations.
Affinity Voting and the Social-Psychology of Identity
Identities and Interest: Race, Ethnicity, and Affinity Voting (book with UBC Press)
This book demonstrates that racialized Canadians are more likely to support candidates of their own ethnic group as well as other racialized ethnic group as compared to White candidates. It also examines what motivates racialized voters to support racialized candidates. The argument presented is that, that contrary to most existing research, there is little evidence for interest-based heuristics. Instead, drawing on social psychology, affinity voting is the result of the effects of self-identification (such as in-group bias, persuasion effects, and expressive voting). The analysis in the manuscript draws on a major survey of racialized Canadians, a series of experiments, census data, and a dataset on the demographics of some 4000 Canadian federal election candidates.
Rainbow Coalitions or Inter-Minority Conflict? (shortlisted for McMenemy Prize, best article in the Canadian Journal of Political Science)
There is a considerable amount of research that says voters are likely to support a candidate of the same race – this is called racial affinity. However, it is unclear whether these affinity effects apply only to candidates of the voters’ specific ethnocultural group or to racialized candidates in general. Previous research suggests that the prospects for “rainbow coalitions” (affinity effects across ethnocultural goups) on the basis of group identities are poor; indeed, findings of inter-minority conflict are common. This study uses new data from a web-based survey experiment with a large panel of racialized respondents and found that while respondents show strong affinity for their own ethnocultural group, they also show some affinity for other minority candidates and certainly no inter-minority conflict. Effects are strongly conditional on the degree of ethnic self-identity. Therefore, “rainbow coalitions” may be more likely than previous research suggests.
Racism and Discrimination
Racial Spillover in Political Attitudes: Generalizing to a New Leader and Context (with Scott Matthews)
Racial-spillover theory proposes that salient associations between prominent racialized politicians and particular political objects—e.g., links between a party leader and her policy proposals—can generate associations between racial and political attitudes via the politician’s perceived racial characteristics. Thus, opinion in relation to policies and other political objects with no manifest connection to race becomes infused with racial attitudes. While multiple studies of Barack Obama’s influence on political attitudes uncover such effects, we test the generality of the phenomenon by examining the case of Jagmeet Singh, the first non-White leader of a major party in Canada. Using an experimental study of policy attitudes and an observational study of 31 years of party evaluations, we uncover clear evidence of racial spillover. The findings suggest racial spillover does not depend on peculiar features of U.S. politics or of the U.S. presidency, and may generalize to racialized political leaders in other contexts.
Friendly Fire: Electoral Discrimination and Ethnic Minority Candidates (in Party Politics)
Discriminatory attitudes towards ethnic minorities are widespread, and a common presumption is that ethnic minority candidates suffer electorally as a result. However, some research has shown that little electoral discrimination occurs, because ethnic minority candidates tend to run for parties of the left, while voters with negative attitudes towards minorities are concentrated on the right. This study shows that when ethnic minority candidates do run for right-wing parties they suffer the brunt of electoral discrimination, while those on the left are insulated. To do so it leverages two methods: a candidate experiment and a difference-in-difference analysis of candidate demographic data and aggregate election results. An ideological stereotyping mechanism is also tested, but there is little evidence that right-wing voters reject ethnic minority candidates because they are viewed as left-leaning.
Canadians hold favorable views about immigration, at least compared to many countries. Was it always so? Two survey series, using Environics and Gallup/Canadian Election Studies (CES) data, respectively, show that opinion on immigration was historically rather negative, became more positive from 1995 to 2005, and then stabilized. Native-born Canadians are now almost as positive toward immigration as immigrants themselves. However, recent aggregate stability masks a sharp polarization post-2005. Panel data from 2004 to 2011 shows that respondents who want less immigration are more likely to shift their partisanship to the right. Conversely, there is no evidence that immigration opinion systematically changed to match partisanship. This suggests that the predominant mechanism is sorting, rather than opinion change, at least in the period examined. Finally, is immigration likely to become an increasing source of political conflict in Canada? It depends on how competition at both ends of the political spectrum structures the interests of the major parties.
Does Everyone Cheer? The Politics of Immigration and Multiculturalism in Canada (with Erin Tolley, to be published in a festschrift in honour of Keith Banting)
The conventional wisdom is that Canada is a tolerant country, accepting of immigration and at peace with diversity. A closer look at public opinion on immigration, multiculturalism, and racial minorities shows that roughly one third of Canadians have negative views. Another third are what we call “conditional multiculturalists”. A large majority approve of restrictive policies, depending on framing. Yet, politics and policy have remarkably positive. We argue political institutions play a crucial role in dampening the effect of anti-immigrant and anti-multicultural public opinion.
Public opinion and energy politics in the Saskatchewan and North Dakota (with Andrea Olive and Emily Eaton)
The acceleration of climate change necessitates an energy transition in Canada and the United StatesIs there public support for transition? What are the key predictors? This paper examines public opinion in two neighboring jurisdictions that experienced a hydraulic fracturing boom: Saskatchewan and North Dakota. Survey data is used to describe and compare opinions on fracking, clean energy, and energy transition. We find that compared to people in Saskatchewan, North Dakotans actually see less of a conflict between clean energy and fracking: they are more supportive of both. We examine predictors suggested by previous research, but aim to more carefully separate economic ideology, partisanship, and economic ties to industry. Economic ideology functions as expected, in essentially the same way across jurisdictions. Partisanship is clearly correlated to attitudes towards energy policy in North Dakota, but the relationship is asymmetric by party and issue. In North Dakota, there is substantial public support for more investment in clean energy, but much less support for energy transition, while in Saskatchewan, the issue is not politicized.
Political Donations
Who Controls the Purse Strings? A Longitudinal Study of Gender and Donations in Canadian Politics (with Erin Tolley and Semra Sevi)
Gender gaps in voter turnout and electoral representation have narrowed, but other forms of gender inequality remain. We examine gendered differences in donations: who donates and to whom? Donations furnish campaigns with necessary resources, provide voters with cues about candidate viability, and influence which issues politicians prioritize. We exploit an administrative data set to analyze donations to Canadian parties and candidates over a 25-year period. We use an automated classifier to estimate donor gender and then link these data to candidate and party characteristics. Importantly, and in contrast to null effects from research on gender affinity voting, we find women are more likely to donate to women candidates, but women donate less often and in smaller amounts than men. The lack of formal gendered donor networks and the reliance on more informal, male-dominated local connections may influence women donors’ behavior. Change over a quarter century has been modest, and large gender gaps persist.
Ethnic group differences in donations to electoral candidates (with Erin Tolley)
Despite increased attention to ethnic differences in political behaviour, there is little research on ethnic minorities as political donors and almost none outside the United States. We draw on an administrative dataset of contributions to candidates, which we augment with donors’ ethnicity. Focusing on the 2015 Canadian election, we find ethnic minorities are generally less likely to donate than other Canadians, but South Asian Canadians donate at astonishingly high rates. Contrary to previous research, there are only modest differences in the size of donations across ethnic groups. Linking donation data to candidate characteristics and census data reveals substantial co-ethnic affinity effects among Chinese and South Asian Canadians. Even in the absence of co-ethnic candidates, however, South Asians donate at a substantial rate. The proportion of donations to out-of-district and weaker candidates is also quite high, which could signal symbolic considerations are especially important to ethnic minority donors. The substantial heterogeneity between ethnic groups and the different effects on rates versus size of donations add important nuance to our knowledge of ethnicity and political behaviour.
Other Projects
Do Municipal Campaigns Enlighten Municipal Voters? Evidence from Montréal and Québec City (with Scott Matthews)
Municipal election campaigns generally receive less attention – from the media and from voters – than campaigns in other political contexts. Yet campaigns may be especially important in municipal politics precisely because of the low level of attention they receive, and the lack of political parties. Therefore, the position-taking by candidates, as well as intensified media coverage, during the campaign period is a crucial learning opportunity for municipal voters. We examine campaign learning using panel data, including economic learning, candidate placements, and priming. We find no evidence for learning on any of these dimensions.
White Millionaires and Hockey Skates – Racialized and Gendered News Coverage of Canadian Mayoral Election (with Bailey Gerrits and Scott Matthews)
This study, using a mixed method approach, examines gendered and racialized news coverage in the 2014 Toronto Mayoral Election, which featured a competitive, non-White woman mayoral candidate and a White woman candidate. The content analysis reveals that the non-White woman candidate received less coverage than the comparable men running against her. Strikingly, employing a quasi-experimental design, we show that the non-White woman received less coverage even while leading in the polls. While there are no quantitative differences in private framing in our study, discourse notes reveal clear qualitative differences. Two directions for further research are proposed: better conceptualization of prominence and a focus on differences in the type and meaning – rather than simply the quantity – of private framing.
Regionalism in Political Attitudes, 1993-2010 (with Scott Matthews and Matthew Mendelsohn, chapter published in “Shifting Power: The New Ontario and What it Means for Canada)
Regionalism has an undeniable influence on Canadian politics. Our history is marked by several changes that revealed or gradually established important
political divisions. It is therefore surprising that researchers are so rarely interested in regional variations in political behavior. Anxious to fill at least partially this gap, the authors have structured this section around the issue implicitly raised by Gidengil et al. : What is the role of regionalism in political behavior? The data tell a story in two stages. First, that attitudinal differences between regions have diminished in recent decades. But it also shows that our political life is still clearly dominated by regionalism, at least in the sense of widening gaps separating the regions in intergovernmental and regional policies. These may complicate behavior in the coming years with the adoption of measures to reduce the deficit, to renew financial transfers, or fight changes without exacerbating climate inter-regional tensions.
Inactive Working Papers
Partisans and a Social Theory of Poll Effects (working paper)
A social identity theory of poll effects is proposed, with two components. First, negative electoral information, such as being behind in the polls, is a negative identity attribution. That is, losing says something bad about the party, and by extension its members and supporters. Second, poll effects are social in that they involve perception of others: being a loser is worse when other people know it. To test this a survey experiment with a national sample of American citizens is used. The results show that partisans are less likely to support a candidate that is substantially behind in the polls. Crucially, people who commonly talk about their vote choice with others are especially sensitive to poll effects.The next stage of this research involves the role of social anxiety personality traits.
conservative but not Conservative? Immigrants, Political Values, and Vote Choice (working paper)
It is often claimed that immigrants have conservative values – yet immigrants generally support parties of the left. This study examines possible explanations for this apparent paradox. The political values of immigrants in five different ethnocultural groups are examined using multiple surveys, and the influence of these values on vote choice is tested. The findings indicate that immigrants do indeed have distinct political values, with some variation across groups and values. The conclusion argues parties of the right could appeal to the conservative values of immigrants, but that the structure of partisan coalitions may not allow it.
Randy Besco 